Multi-Outcome Markets

Not every question has a yes/no answer. “Who wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” has 32 possible answers, not 2. Multi-outcome markets let you trade events where exactly one out of many possible outcomes will be true.

PrediX implements multi-outcome markets as a group of binary markets - each outcome is its own YES/NO market, all linked under one MarketGroup. When the event resolves, the winning outcome’s YES pays $1, every other outcome’s NO pays $1, and the rest pay $0.

This design has a key property: only one outcome wins. If Brazil wins, Brazil-YES = $1, all other countries’ YES = $0. The MarketGroup contract enforces this - you can’t have two winners.

How It’s Different from Binary Markets

Feature	Binary Market	Multi-Outcome Market
Question shape	“Will X happen?”	“Which of N will happen?”
Outcomes	2 (YES/NO)	N (one YES, rest NO)
Token pairs	1 (YES + NO)	N (YES + NO per outcome)
AMM pools	1	N (one per outcome)
Resolution	Outcome = `true` or `false`	Outcome = `winning_index`
Price sum constraint	YES + NO = `$1` (per market)	All YES prices ≈ `$1` (total)

The biggest mental shift: in a multi-outcome market, the sum of all YES prices ≈ $1 (it represents 100% probability distributed across outcomes).

Each outcome trades on its own Market Order, Limit Order, or via the AMM - exactly like binary markets.

GroupSplit & GroupMerge

For multi-outcome markets, PrediX provides GroupSplit and GroupMerge - capital-efficient versions of Split & Merge for multiple outcomes at once.

GroupSplit

Deposit $1 USDC → receive 1 YES + 1 NO for every outcome in the group.

But wait - that doesn’t sum to $1. Why?

Because only the winning YES + 31 losing NO pay. The 31 losing YES = $0, and the 1 winning NO = $0. Net effect: you get exactly your $1 USDC back (minus the winning YES which is the one you’d actually “want”).

In practice, traders use GroupSplit to sell the YES tokens they don’t believe in at market prices and hold the YES they do believe in.

GroupMerge

Deposit 1 YES on every outcome → receive $1 USDC back.

If you hold equal amounts of YES across all outcomes (e.g., 1 Brazil-YES + 1 France-YES + ... + 1 Other-YES), you can burn them all and reclaim $1 USDC.

This is useful for:

Exit liquidity: get out of a multi-outcome position without selling each leg
Arbitrage cleanup: after exploiting price discrepancies, reset to USDC
Capital recycling: redeem unused outcome positions back to cash

Arbitrage in Multi-Outcome Markets

Because all YES prices should sum to $1 (probabilities total to 100%), any deviation creates risk-free profit.

Scenario 1 - Sum < $1 (Undervalued)

If sum of all YES prices = $0.92:

Buy 1 YES of every outcome → costs $0.92
At resolution, exactly one of those pays $1
Profit: $0.08 (less gas)

Scenario 2 - Sum > $1 (Overvalued)

If sum of all YES prices = $1.07:

GroupSplit $1 USDC → get 1 YES + 1 NO per outcome
Sell every YES at market = $1.07 received
Profit: $0.07 (you keep the NO tokens, but they collectively are worth ~$0 after resolution since only 1 NO loses)

These arbitrages keep prices honest. Bots run them continuously, so manual opportunities last seconds.

Trading on Multi-Outcome Markets

Trading each outcome works exactly like a binary market - same Market Order, Limit Order, Split, Merge operations:

Action	What happens
Buy Brazil-YES	Buy YES shares on Brazil’s binary sub-market (its own orderbook + AMM pool)
Sell Brazil-NO	Sell NO shares on Brazil’s binary sub-market
Limit order on France-YES	Rest on France’s CLOB at your price
Split on a specific outcome	Convert USDC → YES + NO on one outcome (not all)
GroupSplit	Convert USDC → YES + NO on every outcome at once

You can also place orders across multiple outcomes simultaneously - for example, “Buy Brazil-YES AND France-YES” as a diversified position.

Resolution Behavior

When a multi-outcome market resolves, the MarketGroup contract settles all sub-markets in a single transaction:

After resolution:

Token type	Final value	Action
Winner’s YES (e.g., Brazil-YES)	`$1`	Redeem for USDC
Winner’s NO (e.g., Brazil-NO)	`$0`	Worthless; hide from watchlist
Loser’s YES (e.g., France-YES, Argentina-YES, …)	`$0`	Worthless
Loser’s NO (e.g., France-NO, Argentina-NO, …)	`$1`	Redeem for USDC

Use Cases

1. Concentrated bet on a favorite

You think Brazil is significantly undervalued at $0.22. Real probability is ~35% in your view.

Strategy: Buy $1,000 of Brazil-YES at $0.22 = 4,545 shares.

If Brazil wins: receive $4,545 (4.5× return)
If Brazil loses: lose $1,000

Expected value = 0.35 × $4,545 - 0.65 × $1,000 = $1,591 - $650 = +$941

This is a high-conviction directional bet.

2. Diversified portfolio across favorites

You think the top 4 favorites are all reasonable but you can’t pick one. Spread $1,000 across them.

$250 Brazil-YES at $0.22 → 1,136 shares → pays $1,136 if Brazil wins
$250 France-YES at $0.18 → 1,389 shares → pays $1,389 if France wins
$250 Argentina-YES at $0.16 → 1,562 shares → pays $1,562 if Argentina wins
$250 England-YES at $0.12 → 2,083 shares → pays $2,083 if England wins

If any one of them wins, you profit. Combined probability ~68%. Lower variance, lower upside.

3. Fade the longshot

You think Germany has zero chance at $0.08. Sell Germany-YES (or equivalently, buy Germany-NO).

Buy $1,000 of Germany-NO at $0.92 → 1,087 shares.

If Germany loses (or doesn’t win): receive $1,087 (+$87 = +8.7%)
If Germany wins: lose $1,000

Low-upside high-conviction fade. Effective when the longshot is overpriced.

4. Group arbitrage

After scanning all outcomes, you notice the sum of all YES prices is $0.96 (instead of $1).

Strategy: Buy $1 worth of each outcome’s YES (total cost $0.96 for the group).

At resolution, exactly one of those YES tokens pays $1. Risk-free profit $0.04 per dollar of group bought (less gas).

Note: this requires buying many small positions — only profitable at significant size or with low gas (Unichain).

5. Hedging an existing concentrated bet

You bought $1,000 of Brazil-YES. As tournament progresses, Brazil narrowly survives Round of 16 — you want to lock in some profit without selling Brazil-YES (price has moved to $0.45).

Strategy: GroupSplit $300 → get YES + NO on every outcome.

Sell the 31 YES tokens you don’t want (Brazil-YES you keep)
Net: you’ve reduced exposure while keeping upside on Brazil

Common Multi-Outcome Market Types

PrediX supports several multi-outcome formats, each follows the same MarketGroup pattern under the hood.:

		Cover image
Tournament winner	FIFA World Cup, NBA Finals, Wimbledon,...	22.png
Multi outcome	Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: Most votes from Bogota,...	23.png
Multi-choice	"Which K-pop group has #1 album in Q4?"	24.png

How PrediX Differs from Polymarket’s NegRisk

Polymarket implements multi-outcome markets using their NegRisk adapter on top of Conditional Token Framework (ERC-1155). PrediX uses MarketGroup with pure ERC-20 outcome tokens.

Feature	Polymarket NegRisk	PrediX MarketGroup
Token standard	ERC-1155	ERC-20
Native Uniswap v4 trading	❌ Requires wrapper	✅ Direct
DeFi composability	❌ Limited (ERC-1155 support)	✅ Full (collateral, vaults, indices)
Liquidity per outcome	Shared via NegRisk AMM	Independent (each outcome has its own pool)
Multi-outcome resolution	Atomic via CTF	Atomic via MarketGroup

PrediX outcome tokens are fully composable - you can use Brazil-YES as collateral on Aave, wrap it in an index, or trade it on any DEX that supports ERC-20.